Fuel Trade Shift : South Africa Dethrones Nigeria in Imports

Fuel Trade Shift in Africa

Greetings esteemed audience, today’s news article covers the update on fuel trade on the African continent. According to new data from energy consultancy CITAC, South Africa has now overtaken Nigeria as the continent’s largest fuel importer, signalling a seismic shift in Africa’s downstream oil market.

This new milestone has placed the South African economy on an edge over it’s continental rival, Nigeria. It was also noted that since early 2024, the world’s largest single-train refinery is disrupting fuel trade patterns sub-haran Africa. This move has seen Nigeria’s petrol import independence reduced, thanks to its 650,000-barrel-per-day capacity.

Fuel Trade Shift in Africa

The Executive Director at CITAC, Elitsa Georgieva stated that the reduction in Nigeria’s import power is as a result of Dangote’s continued operation.

Since the start of 2024, South Africa has consistently led sub-Saharan Africa in fuel imports. Meanwhile, crude oil processing across the region’s refineries surged by 77.8% year-on-year, rising from an average of 382,500 barrels per day in 2023 to 680,100 barrels per day in 2024. This sharp increase was driven almost entirely by the ramp-up of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery.

This development marks a turning point for Nigeria, a country that has long been paradoxically dependent on imported fuel despite being the continent’s leading crude oil producer.

According to the report, Nigeria’s total refined fuel imports are projected to drop to 6.4 million tonnes in 2025—less than half of South Africa’s estimated 15.5 million tonnes for the same period.

“Nigeria’s fuel market has undergone a significant transformation since mid-2023,” the report noted. “The long-anticipated 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery near Lagos began operations in January 2024, steadily increasing throughput and bringing secondary processing units online throughout the year. Its output has largely replaced international clean product imports into West Africa.”

Now operating at around 550,000 barrels per day, the Dangote refinery has become a central source of refined petroleum products in the region. As Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel continues to decline, South Africa’s dependence on foreign supply is only deepening.

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